Macro & Commodities Desk

Measured conclusion: Alive, not deep-tested. L2 outcome: not_attempted.

Kalshi macro: Fed rate odds, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin edges, 15-min markets, Kelly sizing.

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Copy this into your MCP client config:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "Macro & Commodities Desk": {
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry",
      "transport": "streamable-http"
    }
  }
}

Measured tools (10)

• fifteen_min_board read-only

  Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series (crypto, metals, energy, FX): window status, YES price, close time, target, settlement source and the up rate over the last 96 windows; the same window on Polymarket international for BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP; and our live Bitcoin top-of-hour strategy with its record.

  Parameters:

  • limit — ['number', 'string', 'null'] — Max rows (default 30).
  • series — string — One series: ticker (KXETH15M) or asset ("eth", "gold", "euro").
  • open_only — boolean — Only series with a window open right now (default false).
  • asset_class — crypto · commodity · currency · all (default all).

  Hints: read-only yes · destructive no · idempotent not declared · open-world yes

• perps_board read-only

  Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset ("btc", "gold") for one.

  Parameters:

  • asset — string — One perp: symbol or name ("btc", "gold", "XAG").
  • limit — ['number', 'string', 'null'] — Max rows (default 25).

  Hints: read-only yes · destructive no · idempotent not declared · open-world yes

• perp_liquidation read-only

  Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters (a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the exact one. Assets: btc, eth, sol, xrp, doge, hype, link, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Free.

  Parameters:

  • side — Direction. One of: long · short.
  • asset — The perp.
  • entry — ['number', 'string'] — Entry price (default: the live price).
  • margin — ['number', 'string'] — Margin in dollars (default 1000).
  • leverage — ['number', 'string'] — Leverage, e.g. 5 or "5x". Capped at Kalshi’s maximum for the size and side.
  • hold_days — number — Days held, for the funding estimate (default 7).

  Hints: read-only yes · destructive no · idempotent not declared · open-world yes

• commodity_edge read-only

  Use for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal". The Kalshi daily gold, silver or WTI strike, or hourly bitcoin strike, with the largest PMP model edge, as a ticket: side, entry price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, tier and quarter-Kelly size. Pass tickers[] to check a watchlist. Pro — sign in with PredictionMarketsPicks, or a Pro API key.

  Parameters:

  • tickers — array — Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25), market or event tickers. Unmodeled tickers return not_covered.
  • commodity — Which commodity edge to read (needed for a real answer). One of: silver · bitcoin · gold · oil.

  Hints: read-only yes · destructive no · idempotent not declared · open-world yes

• market_pulse read-only

  The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). Returns the composite, the regime call and 2 category scores without an account, 4 to a signed-in account, and all six with Pro. Use for "how is the US economy", "macro regime", "risk-on or risk-off".

  Parameters:

  • topic — macro = the US macro-health composite (the only topic). One of: macro.

  Hints: read-only yes · destructive no · idempotent not declared · open-world yes

• fed_rate_odds read-only

  Use for "will the Fed cut, hold or hike" and "next FOMC meeting odds". Live Kalshi odds for each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting: the next meeting's full strike breakdown and days-until, the rate path, the current fed funds rate, and a next-meeting cross-venue check against Polymarket and CME futures, with the gap in pp.

  Hints: read-only yes · destructive no · idempotent not declared · open-world no

• base_rate_gap read-only

  Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.

  Parameters:

  • baseRateId — Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source).
  • marketPrice — ['number', 'string'] — Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
  • baseRateValue — number — Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.

  Hints: read-only yes · destructive no · idempotent not declared · open-world no

• convert_probability read-only

  Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

  Parameters:

  • value — ['number', 'string'] — The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format.
  • format — Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.

  Hints: read-only yes · destructive no · idempotent not declared · open-world no

• calculate_ev read-only

  Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

  Parameters:

  • marketPrice — ['number', 'string'] — Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
  • yourProbability — ['number', 'string'] — Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

  Hints: read-only yes · destructive no · idempotent not declared · open-world no

• kelly_size read-only

  Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

  Parameters:

  • winProbability (required) — ['number', 'string'] — Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
  • marketPrice (required) — ['number', 'string'] — Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
  • bankroll — ['number', 'string'] — Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure.
  • fraction — Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.

  Hints: read-only yes · destructive no · idempotent not declared · open-world no

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